A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
