Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
